--> Getting It Right: New SES Polling

Thursday, May 11, 2006

New SES Polling

Our most recent national survey of Canadians completed by SES Research Tuesday Night (May 9) has the Conservatives with a comfortable lead over the Liberals (Conservative 38%, Liberals 28%) on the national ballot. NDP support is at 19% followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 9% and the Green Party at 6%. The Conservatives have picked up support in Quebec (+11 points) and are now in a statistical tie with the BQ. Currently, Ontario is also a statistical tie between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

“Our last national poll was conducted at the time of the Emerson-Fortier cabinet announcements – at that time the Conservatives and Liberals were statistically tied. The Conservatives now have pulled ahead in the post budget period. There seems to be minimal political blow-back on the Emerson-Fortier appointments,” said Nik Nanos, President of SES Research. “The Harper-led Conservatives have also realised noticeable 90-day gains in Quebec at the expense of all the other parties. Harper’s focus on Quebec seems to be moving the Conservative numbers.”

Methodology
Polling between May 4th and May 9th, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The change in brackets is from the last SES National Survey completed February 9th, 2006.

Decided Canadian Voters (N=930, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)

Conservatives 38% (+5)
Liberals 28% (-6)
NDP 19% (+1)
Bloc Quebecois 9% (0)
Green 6% (-1)
Undecided 8% (+5)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com

11 Comments:

At 9:39 PM, Anonymous Sean P., Vancouver-Quadra said...

Erin,

Things are looking better for the Harper Tories, but there is a long way to go to win a majority government.

Firstly, the party is still virtually tied with the Liberals in the Atlantic and Ontario regions; the Grits have a wide lead in the 22 Toronto ridings, with the NDP in second place.

Secondly, the party is still virtually tied with the Bloc Quebecois in the non-Montreal Quebec; the BQ and Liberals are virtually tied in Greater Montreal.

Thirdly, the party still has a lot of ground to gain in BC, where the Liberals and NDP are almost equal.

What will hinder a Tory majority? Comments made by various Tory backbenchers, that constantly attack minorities and the Courts....That will scare urban voters away.

Also, the Tory attacks on child care, the Environment, and the Kyoto Accord will not work, nor will any further committments in Afghanistan.

 
At 6:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is no point
in voting anymore.
Elections are rigged and also
the numbers are decided in advance.

www.votefraud.org

Bernie

 
At 6:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now let us return to the initial question of this article: What truth is there to the statement that "Voting is the most violent act someone can commit in his lifetime."? Let this question be answered by assuming that one is not a serial murderer or does not engage in any type of overt criminal activity. In other words, let us assume that most people who vote in electoral elections otherwise lead peaceful, innocent lives. Is voting the most violent act that they will commit in their lifetimes? Based on the argument in this article, the answer must be "Yes." Each person, by voting, sanctions the violence used by agents of the State. The link in the chain of responsibility for that violence surrounds each voter when he pulls down the lever in the voting booth. Voting is an act of presumptive violence because each voter assumes the right to appoint a political guardian over other human beings. No individual voter or even a majority of voters have such a right. If they claim to possess such a right, let them clearly explain where that right comes from and how it squares with the self-evident truths of the Declaration of Independence "that all men are created equal, [and] that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable "Rights" of "Life, Liberty," and Property.
Full essay:
http://members.aol.com/vlntryst/wn103.html

Bernie

 
At 11:42 AM, Anonymous CuriosityKilledTheCat said...

The polls will show a fall in numbers for Harper's New Tories. For the first 100 days Harper managed to succeed in his policy of treating with all matters in compartments: concentrating on the five priorities; dealing with the Premiers separately; controlling questions in question period by answering most himself ...

But in the past 2 weeks the wheels have started coming off. First, some of his rightwing fringe MPs have started speaking out (How about them judges, eh?), and bloggers and the MSM have started poking into his sleight of hand deals (That softwood deal was a helluva deal, eh?).

Harper is losing control of the agenda. The voters are more aware of what he is and is not saying. Voters have seen through the sham budget, and the sham softwood deal, and the sham fiscal imbalance talk, and are starting to check out the reality of the New Tories.

And they are not liking what they see.

Reality has dealt Bush a swift kick in the butt; it is about to do the same to Harper.

Expect a free fall of Tory polling numbers once this starts...

 
At 10:08 PM, Blogger Brandon said...

Guess where Graham and Rae got that "Harper's Munich" nonsense?

curiousity killedthecat

Or so it would appear.

 
At 12:48 AM, Blogger Mr. X said...

Bernie u r on crack. a vote is a vote. why do ppl have to be so damn philosophical...

 
At 8:04 AM, Anonymous CuriosityKilledTheCat said...

Thanks for the reference, Brandon. Leading a country – especially a relatively small one in the shadow of a giant like the US –takes courage, and my article you referred to questioned the courage of the Tories in caving into to a country which had breached a treaty with Canada and failed to abide by tribunals stating this.

As to why I think Tory numbers will fall in the near future: there is a genuine concern by many that the Harper Tories have a wide ranging agenda which Harper is trying to keep under wraps, until such time as he achieves a majority government and can then implement it. Harper's muzzling of his MPs, coupled with his insistence that the only topics to be discussed were his five priorities, simply reinforces this concern.

It would be more honest of the Tories, and more beneficial to the country, if Harper was prepared to discuss his policies in detail, going beyond the relatively trite five priorities.

An honest dialogue between the five political parties in our Parliament is what we as citizens have a right to expect of our representatives.

If this dialogue is avoided, what else can a citizen do but fear that there is a hidden agenda, which probably will hurt him or her?

 
At 11:45 PM, Anonymous Sean P., Vancouver-Quadra said...

I regret that the cancellation of the Federal Gun Registry, or any alteration thereto, will result in a negative impact for the Harper Tories, especially if they claim that they want to win more urban seats.

Shame on them, paying back the gun lobby that got them elected!

 
At 2:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. x

You must have tried crack
to be able to say that.
How does crack make you feel?
Do you get a hangover like with alcohol?

Bernie

 
At 3:46 AM, Blogger Mr. X said...

Bernie,

thumbs up to u buddy. great comeback. and to answer ur question...crack makes me wanna smoke it more...and alcohal just makes me wanna find ur buddies on sesame street so we can slap u 4 saying something stupid again

 
At 8:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sounds like everyone is at about the same point Nationally as they were in the election. All within the Margin of error.

But, if the Tories are up 10+ points in Quebec - and I don't dispute they are - the question begs: Where are they down?

Methinks BC.

 

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